Durant = playoffs, Oden = conference finals

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[From Stephen B. Snyde...]

Poor Man's Commish doesn't usually let me argue about NBA teams and what they should do, because normally we like to leave the rantin' and ravin' to the myriad of blogs out there, but when I brought this up, he didn't think anybody had touched on it, at least not the way I'm about to.

Now that Portland and Seattle are #1 and #2 in this year's deep NBA Draft, which will lead to this year's best Vegas Summer League ever, you have to be asking yourself: Greg Oden or Kevin Durant?

Ballaz everywhere will, of course, lean towards Durant because we can all "be like Kevin". You have to be much taller than everybody else around you to be like Greg. And it's hard to pass on a guy who scored 30 ppg in the college format. What if Oden is to Sam Bowie as Durant is to Michael Jordan?

But haven't we seen enough in the NBA Playoffs this year? You look at the Warriors and you go, "Plenty of swingmen. They need a Carlos Boozer, Kevin Garnett, or Elton Brand. They need a tall guy in the middle who can score, rebound and draw defenders to kick out." You look at the Suns and you go, "Something's wrong with the system. The Spurs closed down everything and let Amare Stoudemire get his. The Suns need another Amare." You look at the Spurs and you go, "Who the heck can guard Tim Duncan and not be forced into a double-team?"

Now, there are plenty of teams that merely need a Durant to get to the playoffs. Or a Yi Jianlian, who is simply a freak-of-nature inside-out pick a la Dirk Nowitzki. In fact, we've already seen the better playoff teams neutralize opposing fives made up of mini-Durants (think Leandro Barbosa and Stephen Jackson in their team systems) and, of course, MVP Dirk.

Remember, it's a team game. Granted, Durant maybe can disrupt a Jazz, Spurs, or Pistons defense enough to significantly alter their pack-it-in styles. But that seems like more of a risky prediction as we sit on the verge of the NBA Finals these next couple weeks.

If you want any chance of getting to the conference finals, you must pick Oden.

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#1 GSW "shoulda woulda coulda"

If you check out the GSOM blog today, aside from a theoretical trade involving Adonal Foyle (among others) for Kevin Garnett, you'll see this reference to a blogpost from last June, perhaps the greatest "shoulda woulda coulda" ever made: Jordan-Pippen 2.0. In other words, the Warriors could have drafted Kobe Bryant in 1996 and Tracy McGrady in 1997.

dreamblogue did the due diligence for you. Only two other teams had draft picks earlier than the GSW in either year: Vancouver (now Memphis) and Philadelphia. In theory, either of those teams could've also drafted "Jordan-Pippen 2.0" as well, but at least Vancouver got Shareef Abdur-Rahim (who was eventually traded to Atlanta for, yes, Pau Gasol) and Antonio Daniels. Philly got Allen Iverson and Keith Van Horn.

Bear in mind, though, that Vancouver had the #3 and #4 picks those years while Philly had #1 and #2 -- back in those days, no way do you spend a top-five pick on a high schooler (which actually makes the Warriors picks stink even more). We all know how far AI took Philly and Pau took Memphis, so you can't really fault either of those teams. Meanwhile, the Warriors had picks #11 and #8 and chose Todd Fuller and Foyle. Obviously, no playoff appearances, let alone consistent starting contributions.

A quick glance at both drafts suggests that as a GM, you are best off drafting for basketball skill, not size. But then again stating the obvious is beyond the scope of dreamblogue. "Jordan-Pippen 2.0" is the best shoulda-woulda-coulda I've ever heard.

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