Poor Man's Commish » jeremylin

Odds stacked against Jeremy Lin to make the NBA

poormanscommish — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 18:58:46 +0000

Now that the NBA Draft is done, what are the chances of actually making the NBA? Here are some interesting numbers as analyzed by a Utah Jazz blogger. The data was collected for a ten-year period up through the 2007 NBA Draft. With Jeremy Lin projected not getting drafted at all, you can see that his chances of merely making the NBA are now even more astronomical than merely getting drafted. Still, it isn’t impossible and has been done before, as Warrior fans well know with Anthony Morrow and the recent spattering of D-League players…

(click to enlarge)

Excerpted from: JAZZ: Locke’s Jazz Report, 2009-10

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AJ Price’s injury opens up an NBA pg roster spot

poormanscommish — Tue, 25 May 2010 06:31:25 +0000

The dozen or so point guard Draft prospects including Jeremy Lin, our fan favorite of Dream League, just got an available roster spot — scarce as they may be (remember, there were 16 point guards drafted last year) — as A.J. Price of the Indiana Pacers went down with a broken patella and will be sidelined four to six months. That puts his return past training camp, and quite possibly past Opening Day and even as far as December 2010.

Here’s an excerpt from TSN:

“Price suffered the injury in a charity basketball game Saturday night in New York. He will have surgery Tuesday in Indianapolis, where he will also rehabilitate with the Pacers’ medical staff.

Price injured the same knee two years ago, suffering a torn ACL while playing in an NCAA Tournament game for the University of Connecticut.”

Read the whole article: Pacers G Price needs surgery, out 4-6 monthsYou might also like:

Portsmouth prospecting: Jeremy Lin’s hidden numbers

poormanscommish — Sat, 22 May 2010 00:45:45 +0000

While ballyhooing the performances of Jerome Randle and Mikhail Torrance, I also reported the consensus that Jeremy Lin is a bonafide point guard prospect. I shall now present to you further evidence of his value to a team at the point position, perhaps more-so than even Randle or Torrance, backed by numbers.

Can you guess which of these stats correspond to which player?…

PER-40: 18.2 ppg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 5.3 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 2.2
PER-40: 15.7 ppg, 9.1 apg, 4.1 spg, 4.1 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 2.2
PER-40: 23.9 ppg, 8.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 6.4 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 1.3

These are the numbers from the three-game performances at Portsmouth, normalized to per-forty-minutes, and listed in order of assists-per-game (actually, per forty minutes). Which one would you take as your point guard? I’ll match the stats to the players at the end of this blogpost.

As you can see in the embedded YouTube clip above, Jeremy demonstrated his point guard acumen. His second and third games were even better. Before the third game, I even told him that Randle and Torrance had incredible games the night before, so if there was a UConn or Georgetown performance left in him, now would be a good time to bust that out.

Only he would be able to tell you if he took my suggestion to heart, but he almost did bust out. In his third and last Portsmouth game, he scored 13 points, but went 0-for-4 from the free throw line, so he easily could’ve finished with 17. He had a typical day at the office from the floor, going 6-for-7. He went 1-for-2 from beyond the arc. He collected 7 assists, had 4 steals, and blocked a shot. However, he committed 5 turnovers, 2 of them right before halftime after getting too deep under the basket, and after having a really strong stretch of play leading up to that. Those turnovers kind of took the wind out of the sails and he couldn’t muster up another stretch like that in the second half.

As I have maintained since the day I saw him first play in the Summer of 2008, he’s the ultra-unique type of guy you want on a talented team. Someone who will distribute and facilitate. Someone who doesn’t need to shoot, but makes the most of his shots.

The point guard I want on my team also can make steals to start fastbreaks, as well as block a shot or two every now and then on defense.

Here are the answers…

Randle: 18.2 ppg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 5.3 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 2.2
Jeremy: 15.7 ppg, 9.1 apg, 4.1 spg, 4.1 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 2.2
Torrance: 23.9 ppg, 8.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 6.4 tpg, assist-to-turnover: 1.3

With Randle, you’ll see that he’s got high points per game and high turnovers, which means he dominates the ball and can tend to take more gambles than you’d like. It’s even more acute for Torrance, who has an alarming rate of turnovers. The low steals-per-forty is also an indication that Torrance doesn’t necessarily turn defensive possessions into offensive ones, although he does play solid straight-up defense.

With the blocked shots, we had this by game…

Randle: 0, 0, 0.
Jeremy: 0, 1, 1.
Torrance: 0, 2, 0.

So, who’s making more things happen on the court, both on the offensive and defensive ends? Well, they all are (maybe not so much Randle on the defensive end), but if there’s a way to impact both ends of the floor without actually relying on scoring, albeit a huge facet of the game of basketball, Jeremy’s doing that.

That is the underlying thesis that I’ve been trying to get across for the past two years. Now there is hard evidence and relevant context.

Let’s take Goran Dragic, for example. He backs up Steve Nash on the Phoenix Suns. Occasionally, Dragic will have great stretches of play where you can actually envision him carrying the torch after Nash retires. Dragic is very unselfish and his approach to the game is just like Jeremy’s: a facilitator, a distributor.

Granted, if I were to choose between the two, right now I’d have to pick Dragic over Jeremy for the obvious reason that Dragic has already proven himself at the relevant level. Dragic is taller and has a nice three-point shot, while Jeremy is more explosive from point A to B and can make things happen on defense. But they have very similar approaches to the game.

Sometimes when people dismiss Jeremy’s chances for the NBA, what gets lost is the importance of role players, the reality of the job of being an NBA GM. It’s not all about the superstars. Remember, 20% of the rosters this past season were filled by D-Leaguers.You might also like:

Point guard prospect Ben Uzoh

poormanscommish — Tue, 18 May 2010 20:08:37 +0000

Among those such as Jeremy Lin vying for an NBA point guard spot is Tulsa’s Ben Uzoh. Chad Ford of ESPN recently got to see him play during training sessions in LA. Uzoh also made an appearance at the Portsmouth Invitational, but had the misfortune of being on the same team as Mikhail Torrance, who basically stole the show.

I have seen Uzoh play a few times this past season, including at Portsmouth, but I’ll save my scouting report for later. Suffice it to say for now, the bottom line is, I do not think as highly of Uzoh as Ford does. Here’s Ford’s take on him…

I know Uzoh isn’t getting a lot of love right now. Of all the top guys I saw Monday, he was the only one not invited to the Chicago pre-draft camp. But I think he has a chance to be a solid role player in the NBA. He was very good in the workout, showing elite athleticism, shooting the lights out and fighting hard on defense. His handle and decision making need some work, but he’s another guy who could provide a scoring boost off the bench.

Read more from Chad Ford (ESPN Insder subscription required): NBA draft 2010: Damion James, Jordan Crawford, Luke Harangody workout analysis – ESPN

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Looks like Avery Bradley’s a point guard

poormanscommish — Fri, 14 May 2010 15:59:53 +0000

Chad Ford is following the NBA predraft training circuit and has filed a rather surprising report on former Texas freshman Avery Bradley. My observations this past season led me to believe he was an undersized shooting guard, but now I wouldn’t be surprised if NBA executives have him targeted as a point guard.

That means another point guard pick has been taken, because Bradley’s a shoo-in in this Draft. Therefore, it’s one less reason for Jeremy Lin to get drafted (which isn’t necessarily the same thing as to get a spot on an NBA roster).

Here’s an excerpt from Ford’s article on Bradley…

I’m still not sure if he’s a pure point guard, and that’s a serious drawback. But everything else looks pretty good. He’s super-quick and can change speeds on a dime. He showed an excellent jumper, with NBA 3-point range. He displayed the ability to score from just about everywhere on the floor. And when he got into it with the likes of Sherron Collins and Armon Johnson, his stifling defense gave them lots of problems.

I thought during the NCAA season, Bradley did show some nice defensive skills compared to the average college defender, which might not be saying much, but him being skinny and all, and his really sweet midrange jumper, I just didn’t see the D translating to the next level.

But if Ford is saying he’s shutting down Collins and Johnson, then maybe Bradley’s an NBA point guard from the defensive angle, then NBA execs are drooling. They’re thinking, “We’ll figure out how to fit him into the offensive scheme — at point.”

Back to his jumper. It’s the one comparison I can make to an NBA superstar: Michael Jordan. I’ve tweeted before about Bradley that he’s like Mike in that regard, but only in that regard. He squares up, he jumps high, his elbow is straight, and the ball is always in the middle of his springboard form.

Ford’s eyewitness account of stifling Collins and, to a degree Johnson (because I don’t think Johnson is that hard to contain, sorry) gives me food for thought that Bradley is worth a first-round pick.

Read more (ESPN Insider subscription required): NBA draft 2010: Avery Bradley, Lance Stephenson shine at Las Vegas workouts – ESPN

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Duggan: Jeremy Lin’s first NBA workout next week

poormanscommish — Wed, 12 May 2010 07:41:54 +0000

Not to steal the thunder, but Dan Duggan of the Boston Herald is about the only one outside of Jeremy Lin’s agent and family who has access to his progress. Jeremy’s currently in Las Vegas training at Impact/Abunassar. He trained there last summer (along with his two brothers). And Jeremy has his first workout with an NBA franchise lined up next week, presumably thanks to his agent Roger Montgomery.

Oh, how I wish I could see him go up against Sherron Collins on a daily basis. Jeremy says he’s “holding his own” and working on his 3-point shooting (better), dribbling (not going quite as rapidly as he’d like), and defense.

It’s good to know Jeremy’s in good hands, but the fact is, he still remains off all of the mock draft boards (e.g., far below Collins). On the other hand, IMHO I believe an NBA GM will pick him in the 2nd round primarily because he’s Asian-American. Hey, it is what it is. Remember, the NBA is a business.

While I’m sure purists would prefer he be picked based on merit, you have to remember that the 2nd round is a bit of a crapshoot. Don’t even try to get inside the minds of NBA executives who have a myriad of hidden variables and/or agendas at play.

I’ve said before that I believe Jeremy’s talent gives him 1st round plausibility, but unlike guys like Gordon Hayward (Final Four pedigree) or Daniel Orton (UK and hype by whom he’s training with), Jeremy doesn’t have enough behind-the-scenes, power-broking “he-said-she-said” going for him. Note: This is complete, unsubstantiated speculation on my part (a gut feel).

To let the floodgates open, I’m not sure that the 2nd round is based on merit at all because 2nd round draftees do not automatically get guaranteed contracts. Again, this is just my opinion. More on this in a future blogpost.

You can follow Duggan on Twitter at http://twitter.com/dduggan21. He has promised a follow-up report on Jeremy’s workouts.

Read the whole article:
http://news.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/oncampus/?p=217&srvc=home&position=recentYou might also like:

A few pg prospects return to college

poormanscommish — Tue, 11 May 2010 00:37:45 +0000

Jeremy Lin was not invited to the Portland Trailblazers’ recent workout, but in case you got the news second-hand (e.g., through another cut-up job by RealGM), that is actually good news for him and many other point guard draft prospects. In one fell swoop, and in recognition of the NCAA’s self-serving deadline of May 8, the Blazers did many people a favor by telling these invites that they ought to go back to college. Here were the key take-aways from the article by Joe Freeman of The Oregonian…

“The draft in general is quite strong, to be honest with you,” said Chad Buchanan, the Blazers’ director of college scouting. “I think there are a couple stars at the top and a lot of very good potential starters and rotation guys down to the early second round. It’s a deep draft.”

I might even add that we could see the landscape of the NBA change with this draft. The 2010 NBA Draft is so deep with big men, that we should see a return to more traditional lineups with either two 4’s or a 4 and a 5 in the frontcourt, instead of situations like the post-devoid Golden State Warriors or Atlanta Hawks where you have 6′9″ Al Horford playing center in the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

I might add that the Draft is also well-stocked with athletic wings. So, the demand (and supply) with point guards and shooters is very low this year.

Here’s another take-away from the article…

Note: The underclassmen who worked out Friday were E’Twaun Moore of Purdue, Lavoy Allen of Temple, Talor Battle of Penn State, Malcolm Delaney of Virginia Tech, Eniel Polynice of Mississippi, Alex Tyus of Florida and Mike Davis of Illinois. Others working out were Dominic Waters of Portland State, Devan Downey of South Carolina, NBDL player Jeremy Wise, Donald Sloan of Texas A&M and Connecticut’s Gavin Edwards.

Here are my brief scouting reports on each of these players…

Moore — A tallish ballhandler who I really like, but he’s definitely one more year away. Really good passing skills. The return of Robbie Hummel to Purdue’s lineup next year will enhance Moore’s draft stock. He’s the only one in this group that really has a shot for making the NBA in 2011. Also, this is good news for Jeremy Lin fans, as one more pg has fallen off the radar, albeit probably ranked lower than Jeremy to begin with.

Allen, Tyus, Davis, Waters, Wise — Never heard of these guys. And believe me, I cast my net far and wide this season with respect to draftable point guards in competition with Jeremy. I hope to write more about these in the coming weeks before the Draft.

Battle — Too small for the NBA.

Delaney — A great scorer, but he’s being inserted at the 1 because of his 6-foot height. So, he’s a 2 trapped inside a 1’s body. He doesn’t have the right mentality or size to be an NBA 1. I don’t think it really matters if he returns to college. He could perhaps make decent money playing pro overseas.

Polynice — Spitting in the face of Terrico White ballyhooers, I will say that Polynice was, in my mind, Mississippi’s best player last season. He has nice NBA size for a big guard, but he really doesn’t have much skill beyond hustle. Another year in college to develop that skill will be helpful.

Downey — A terrific leader at the point-scorer position for South Carolina, unfortunately he’s too small for the NBA and he did not stand out at all at Portsmouth.

Sloan — A 2-guard, he showed he could score at Portsmouth, but didn’t do so with any flair or athletic prowess, i.e., he didn’t raise my eyebrows on a consistent basis.

Edwards — This UConn big man is just too slow for the NBA. He doesn’t bring anything of note to the table.

And finally, the best news thus far for Jeremy Lin fans, excerpted from the article…

Buchanan said he expects all seven underclassmen at Friday’s workout to return to school.

Once again, thanks to the Blazers for saving a lot of heartache on the part of these players.

Read the whole article: Trail Blazers begin NBA draft workouts | OregonLive.com

In addition, the more highly-touted Jimmer Fredette of BYU also returned to school.You might also like:

The scientific reason for the Jeremy Lin love

poormanscommish — Tue, 04 May 2010 18:53:00 +0000

The reasons why Asian-Americans care and root for Jeremy Lin can now be explained scientifically. The study was actually based on African-Americans showing empathy for other African-Americans as a result of the plight with Hurricane Katrina. The following is an excerpt from a blog that reported the findings…

“The take home point, says the study’s author Joan Chiao, is that our ability to identify with another person dramatically changes how much we can feel the pain of another and how much we’re willing to help them. Details are reported in the journal NeuroImage.”

Read the whole article at: Strong racial identity intensifies empathy « Futurity.org

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Mark Cuban on having personality in the NBA

poormanscommish — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 18:45:15 +0000

Note to all NBA draftees: when you come into the Association, please bring your personality. If you can’t offer something unique in the spotlight, or if you don’t put your heart and soul towards being in the spotlight, chances are, there is someone more qualified than you who does, and who wants it more. And it doesn’t necessarily take basketball skill to do it.

Now, some of you might be too young to have fully developed a personality. That’s okay. Eventually you will have one. All human beings go through this process.

But unless you are a shoo-in for a lottery pick, you better at least counter that lack of a developed personality with a strategic gameplan that will lead you to an NBA career. That strategy could involve some element of PR, perhaps a greater element of basketball skills training, and more likely a combination of both. But please do not underestimate the PR portion.

Because public perception will soon become more powerful than you could’ve ever imagined.

And we’re not just talking the general public. We could be talking about any particular affinity group. It could be the subset of NBA general managers that may make a certain judgment about you by the basketball decisions you have made. It could be the subset of fans from your hometown that may make a certain judgment about you by the quotes you have made in any given interview.

Whatever the affinity, never underestimate it.

It’s just like Mark Cuban saying to new Nets owner and Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, in the excerpted interview by Howard Beck of the New York Times, below: If it’s not in your nature to show up, then you better at least plan to show up.

The NBA, where multi-million-dollar businesses happen.

Q. Where does personality come into play?

A. Personality matters in the entertainment business. Entertainment matters in the entertainment business. The N.B.A. doesn’t sell basketball in our arenas. We sell fun. On TV, we sell competition, passion, amazing athleticism and personality. When we say, “This is where amazing happens,” it’s as much Shaq’s oversized personality — now Michael Jordan on the sideline screaming at refs — as LeBron’s dunks or Dirk’s jumper.

Read the whole article at: Words of Wisdom From the Mavericks’ Cuban – Off the Dribble Blog – NYTimes.com

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Gunnin’ for that NBA pg spot: Vassilis Spanoulis

poormanscommish — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 22:03:11 +0000

This year’s point guard crop of draftees is not that deep and Jeremy Lin, Bay Area native and Asian baller, won’t have as much competition as last year’s 16 point guards selected, but available roster spots at pg on NBA teams are just that: available roster spots (read: not a whole lof of them left).

I found one more to add to the complications: Vassilis Spanoulis. And he’s been tagged as the best — as in, #1 — free agent prospect for this summer out of the Euroleague.

So here’s the dilemma with pg roster spots, assuming an NBA team has them: sign a more experienced, expensive free agent like Spanoulis (who apparently has the nickname “Kill Bill”), or draft an unproven rookie straight out of the NCAA, but save beaucoup bucks?

EXCERPT: “Kill Bill is as smart, tough, and competitive as any player in the world. He is a pure winner and a natural leader. He can lead a team as the primary option from either back court position on offense and he is an excellent defender.

He should not be judged on his lone NBA year with the Houston Rockets, as he obviously did not get a fair chance from Jeff Van Gundy. He is clearly a superior player to the likes of Rafer Alston, Luther Head, and John Lucas III, whom were ahead of him on Van Gundy’s depth chart, and pretty much every NBA scout you talk to will state as much. Potential NBA starting point guard or 6th man.

NBA Scout Assessment: An NBA scout said this of Spanoulis, ‘Spanoulis has no fear on the basketball court. He is as confident as any player there is. In my opinion he can start in any team in the NBA.’”

Read the full article at: talkbasket.net/blogs/top-10-euroleague-free-agent-nba-prospects-2954.html

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